HR Newsletter #109 August 2017 (Pay Forecasts)

Employment Update


The CIPD have published their annual report into trends in labour market and pay.  The “go-to” section that all employers are interested in is their prediction for future pay increases:

(a) Predicted annual pay awards by sector


(b) Employers predict their own Company pay awards for the year

The key metrics on pay outlook from the report are:

1.  Pay prediction by sector

Public             1%

Private           2%

Voluntary       1%

Average        1.4%


2. Average prediction of future pay increase

34% of employers predict a   1 – 1.99% pay rise this year

22% of employers predict a   2 – 2.99% pay rise this year

Full weighted average (predictions for all employers) – 1.7% pay increase this year


3. National statistics for comparison

RPI (Jul’17) – 3.6%

CPI (Jul’17) – 2.6%

The full set of labour market forecasts for spring 2017 are available here